Assisted driving yes, fully automated rather not

Drivers in Germany continue to show great interest in driver assistance systems, as demonstrated by the Goslar Institute based on a recent analysis by management consultants McKinsey & Company. In the customer survey conducted for this purpose, around a quarter of more than 25,000 participants said they were very likely to want to order an advanced driving assistance system when they next bought a vehicle. And two-thirds of these customers said they would be willing to pay a one-time fee of $10,000 for a Level 4 highway pilot, among other things. Kersten Heineke, partner at McKinsey and co-author of the study, explains this attitude by saying that assisted driving is very attractive from the customer's point of view. This is because it can make automobility safer, more pleasant and more productive, says Heineke.

However, for the first time, the authors of the survey also registered a decline in customer interest in completely driverless vehicles of level 5. According to the study, only 26 percent of respondents would currently want to switch to a fully automated car. By comparison, in 2020 this figure was still 35 percent of survey participants, as McKinsey explains. The authors of the study see a major reason for this development in a decline in confidence in this technology: In the survey, 64 percent of customers said that the safety of autonomous vehicles still needs to be improved. McKinsey expert Heineke also calls for further development of the regulatory environment, although he admits that he has already seen the right steps being taken in Germany and other countries.

In fact, highly automated driving up to a speed of 130 km/h has been permitted in this country since 2023. This makes Germany a pioneer in the EU: In May 2021, the Bundestag and Bundesrat approved a law according to which fully autonomous vehicles will in principle be allowed to participate in public road traffic in Germany. The concrete implementing provisions for the law are to follow successively.

At least this sets the necessary legal framework, comments the ADAC. However, the ambitious timetable for the participation of driverless cars in Germany had to be postponed again and again, which the automobile club attributes not least to the fact that "the technology to be developed on the part of the car manufacturers as well as the legal situation on the part of the legislators were apparently more complex than expected." In addition, German drivers do not yet seem to be truly convinced of the advantages of self-driving cars. In this regard, the ADAC cites surveys according to which 45 percent of drivers in this country doubt the reliability of vehicle technology or are afraid of hackers. "Digital euphoria looks different," ADAC finds.

A study by the Prognos research institute on autonomous driving for the ADAC, for example, assumes that automated driving is likely to take hold only slowly. Reason: Cars are in use for up to 20 years on average, which is why new technologies only make themselves felt very gradually in the overall population. According to Prognos, the proportion of new vehicles in which the driver can completely disengage from the driving task on all highways is expected to rise from 2.4 percent in 2020 to as much as 70 percent in 2050 in the "optimistic" case. Accordingly, from 2030 onward, passenger cars with Citypilot, i.e., the ability to drive alone on the highway as well as in the city, will gradually appear on the roads. And it is only after 2040 that the research institute expects to see a wider range of cars that can get from door to door fully autonomously and thus no longer need a driver even on rural roads.

For better understanding, "Level 1" refers to "assisted driving" (with cruise control, adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning, etc.). At "Level 2" of "partially automated driving," vehicles can drive straight ahead on highways for a short period of time without driver intervention, as well as take over steering, braking and acceleration operations. At "Level 3" of "highly automated driving," drivers are allowed to turn their attention away from the road, but must still be able to intervene in driving if necessary and take over the wheel if necessary. "Level 4" comprises "fully automated driving," in which the vehicle is completely autonomous on certain routes and the driver can withdraw from the driving action. At this level of automation, it is even possible to drive without occupants. Finally, "Level 5" of "autonomous driving," which has been envisaged so far on top, includes completely autonomous driving without any human assistance.

However, experts believe there is still a great deal of work to be done and clarification required before this stage can be reached. However, it is also clear to them that the vision of autonomous driving has long since ceased to be a "future topic" and is closer to reality than many think. In any case, the potential of this technology is enormous, emphasizes the ADAC with reference to the Prognos study - for society, safety and for Europe as a business location. According to the study, this form of automation can better integrate elderly or disabled people, make traffic more fluid and the transport of goods more environmentally friendly, and - depending on the degree of automation - further reduce the number of accidents: After all, human error is blamed for as many as 90 percent of all crashes. The development of the best technology for autonomous driving is therefore of immense importance, the experts emphasize. (aum)